War-torn Myanmar Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a vote widely dismissed as a farce, with major political parties dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The military government is conducting a phased ballot nearly five years after it took control in a takeover, which sparked widespread opposition and escalated into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"There are no conditions for the practice of the rights of free speech, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for interfering with or opposing the polls under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and comedian Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, adding that resistance forces have made warnings asking people to boycott the polls.

The army has been fighting on several fronts, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's three hundred and thirty townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Results are expected by late January.

There is not expected to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while others are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the results in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has dismissed condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".